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記録されなかった出生 : 人口人類学におけるシミュレーション研究
https://doi.org/10.15021/00004159
https://doi.org/10.15021/00004159fe554eba-a701-4324-b07b-6f7637a9bb9c
| 名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
|---|---|---|
KH_021_4_004.pdf (2.3 MB)
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| Item type | 紀要論文 / Departmental Bulletin Paper(1) | |||||||||||
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| 公開日 | 2010-02-16 | |||||||||||
| タイトル | ||||||||||||
| タイトル | 記録されなかった出生 : 人口人類学におけるシミュレーション研究 | |||||||||||
| タイトル | ||||||||||||
| タイトル | Uncounted Births : Estimating the Fertility of Tokugawa Peasants from Shumon Aratame cho | |||||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||||
| 言語 | ||||||||||||
| 言語 | jpn | |||||||||||
| キーワード | ||||||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||||
| 主題 | 人口人類学｜マイクロシミュレーション｜人口再生産過程モデル｜宗門改帳｜日本 | |||||||||||
| キーワード | ||||||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||||
| 主題 | demographic anthropology｜microsimulation｜model for reproductive process｜shumon aratame-cho｜Japan | |||||||||||
| 資源タイプ | ||||||||||||
| 資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 | |||||||||||
| 資源タイプ | departmental bulletin paper | |||||||||||
| ID登録 | ||||||||||||
| ID登録 | 10.15021/00004159 | |||||||||||
| ID登録タイプ | JaLC | |||||||||||
| 著者 |
木下, 太志
× 木下, 太志
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| 抄録 | ||||||||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||||||||
| 内容記述 | Reflecting recent developments in demographic studies, the first part of this paper emphasizes the importance of the role cultural anthropologists can play in this field. The results of major demographic studies of recent years, such as the Princeton Fertility Project, the World Fertility Survey and those by the Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure, throw doubts on the validity of the demographic transition theory which has been the single dominant theory in demography for almost half a century. Drawing upon the modernization theory, the demographic transition theory postulates that demographic behavior, particularly fertility, is strongly influenced by socio-economic factors such as industrialization, urbanization and literacy rates. Recent empirical studies, however, fail to find such a relationship. Instead, they find that demographic behavior is determined more by cultural factors such as religion and ethnicity. It is in this context that I emphasize the role of cultural anthropologists in demographic studies which have been long dominated by sociologists and economists. The second part of the paper examines a somewhat specific, but crucial, issue to Japanese historical demography. This is the issue of the underregistration of births recorded in shumon aratame-cho (SAC) , population registers most frequently utilized by researchers. This has been a serious problem since it prevents accurate estimates of basic demographic indices such as fertility and infant mortality. In solving this, this paper employs a microsimulation approach. This approach has several advantages over macrosimulation. The most important is that with microsimulation, we can consider relatively easily in our model such critical factors as seasonal fluctuation of births and monthly death rates of infants. The model for reproductive process used in this paper and its computer program are based on studies by the Institute of Population Problems and those by Bongaarts and Potter. For input data for the simulation, data from the Tokugawa period is used wherever information is available; otherwise, I use data of the Meiji and the Taisho periods. The result of the simulation reveals that the degree of underregistration of births in SAC ranges from 82 to 88 per cent, depending on infant mortality levels, and thus 12 to 18 per cent of births were never recorded. This leads us to conclude that birth rates calculated directly from SAC need to be multiplied by 1.15 to 1.22 in order to obtain accurate fertility estimates of Tokugawa peasants. Another important finding from the simulation concerns the range of random fluctuation in fertility due to a small population size. With a cohort size of 25 persons, the simulation yields a standard deviation of 0.25 births in total marital fertility rate (TMFR) between five runs. The comparable figure goes up to 0.7 births with a cohort size of 10 persons. This will give us a measure of variance when dealing with the fertility of a small village population in the Tokugawa period. |
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| 書誌情報 |
国立民族学博物館研究報告 en : Bulletin of the National Museum of Ethnology 巻 21, 号 4, p. 877-919, 発行日 1997-03-28 |
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| 出版者 | ||||||||||||
| 出版者 | 国立民族学博物館 | |||||||||||
| 出版者（英） | ||||||||||||
| 出版者 | National Museum of Ethnology | |||||||||||
| ISSN | ||||||||||||
| 収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||||||||
| 収録物識別子 | 0385-180X | |||||||||||
| 書誌レコードID | ||||||||||||
| 収録物識別子タイプ | NCID | |||||||||||
| 収録物識別子 | AN00091943 | |||||||||||
| 著者版フラグ | ||||||||||||
| 出版タイプ | VoR | |||||||||||
| 出版タイプResource | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 | |||||||||||
