{"created":"2023-06-20T15:59:07.797226+00:00","id":4167,"links":{},"metadata":{"_buckets":{"deposit":"491e7966-f610-40b2-9611-a02e3c439236"},"_deposit":{"created_by":17,"id":"4167","owners":[17],"pid":{"revision_id":0,"type":"depid","value":"4167"},"status":"published"},"_oai":{"id":"oai:minpaku.repo.nii.ac.jp:00004167","sets":["345:419"]},"author_link":["10959"],"item_9_biblio_info_7":{"attribute_name":"書誌情報","attribute_value_mlt":[{"bibliographicIssueDates":{"bibliographicIssueDate":"1997-03-28","bibliographicIssueDateType":"Issued"},"bibliographicIssueNumber":"4","bibliographicPageEnd":"919","bibliographicPageStart":"877","bibliographicVolumeNumber":"21","bibliographic_titles":[{"bibliographic_title":"国立民族学博物館研究報告"},{"bibliographic_title":"Bulletin of the National Museum of Ethnology","bibliographic_titleLang":"en"}]}]},"item_9_description_4":{"attribute_name":"抄録","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"Reflecting recent developments in demographic studies, the first part\nof this paper emphasizes the importance of the role cultural anthropologists\ncan play in this field. The results of major demographic\nstudies of recent years, such as the Princeton Fertility Project, the World\nFertility Survey and those by the Cambridge Group for the History of\nPopulation and Social Structure, throw doubts on the validity of the\ndemographic transition theory which has been the single dominant\ntheory in demography for almost half a century. Drawing upon the\nmodernization theory, the demographic transition theory postulates that\ndemographic behavior, particularly fertility, is strongly influenced by\nsocio-economic factors such as industrialization, urbanization and\nliteracy rates. Recent empirical studies, however, fail to find such a relationship.\nInstead, they find that demographic behavior is determined\nmore by cultural factors such as religion and ethnicity. It is in this context\nthat I emphasize the role of cultural anthropologists in demographic\nstudies which have been long dominated by sociologists and economists.\nThe second part of the paper examines a somewhat specific, but\ncrucial, issue to Japanese historical demography. This is the issue of\nthe underregistration of births recorded in shumon aratame-cho (SAC) ,\npopulation registers most frequently utilized by researchers. This has\nbeen a serious problem since it prevents accurate estimates of basic\ndemographic indices such as fertility and infant mortality. In solving\nthis, this paper employs a microsimulation approach. This approach\nhas several advantages over macrosimulation. The most important is\nthat with microsimulation, we can consider relatively easily in our model\nsuch critical factors as seasonal fluctuation of births and monthly death\nrates of infants.\nThe model for reproductive process used in this paper and its computer\nprogram are based on studies by the Institute of Population Problems\nand those by Bongaarts and Potter. For input data for the simulation,\ndata from the Tokugawa period is used wherever information is\navailable; otherwise, I use data of the Meiji and the Taisho periods.\nThe result of the simulation reveals that the degree of underregistration\nof births in SAC ranges from 82 to 88 per cent, depending on infant\nmortality levels, and thus 12 to 18 per cent of births were never recorded.\nThis leads us to conclude that birth rates calculated directly from\nSAC need to be multiplied by 1.15 to 1.22 in order to obtain accurate fertility\nestimates of Tokugawa peasants.\nAnother important finding from the simulation concerns the range\nof random fluctuation in fertility due to a small population size. With a\ncohort size of 25 persons, the simulation yields a standard deviation of\n0.25 births in total marital fertility rate (TMFR) between five runs. The\ncomparable figure goes up to 0.7 births with a cohort size of 10 persons.\nThis will give us a measure of variance when dealing with the fertility of a\nsmall village population in the Tokugawa period.","subitem_description_type":"Abstract"}]},"item_9_identifier_registration":{"attribute_name":"ID登録","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_identifier_reg_text":"10.15021/00004159","subitem_identifier_reg_type":"JaLC"}]},"item_9_publisher_33":{"attribute_name":"出版者","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_publisher":"国立民族学博物館"}]},"item_9_publisher_34":{"attribute_name":"出版者（英）","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_publisher":"National Museum of Ethnology"}]},"item_9_source_id_10":{"attribute_name":"書誌レコードID","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_source_identifier":"AN00091943","subitem_source_identifier_type":"NCID"}]},"item_9_source_id_8":{"attribute_name":"ISSN","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_source_identifier":"0385-180X","subitem_source_identifier_type":"ISSN"}]},"item_9_version_type_16":{"attribute_name":"著者版フラグ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_version_resource":"http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85","subitem_version_type":"VoR"}]},"item_creator":{"attribute_name":"著者","attribute_type":"creator","attribute_value_mlt":[{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"木下, 太志"},{"creatorName":"キノシタ, フトシ","creatorNameLang":"ja-Kana"},{"creatorName":"Kinoshita, Futoshi","creatorNameLang":"en"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{}]}]},"item_files":{"attribute_name":"ファイル情報","attribute_type":"file","attribute_value_mlt":[{"accessrole":"open_date","date":[{"dateType":"Available","dateValue":"2015-11-19"}],"displaytype":"detail","filename":"KH_021_4_004.pdf","filesize":[{"value":"2.3 MB"}],"format":"application/pdf","licensetype":"license_note","mimetype":"application/pdf","url":{"label":"KH_021_4_004.pdf","url":"https://minpaku.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/4167/files/KH_021_4_004.pdf"},"version_id":"09630908-41ff-4e84-99f2-b5f11311ae7d"}]},"item_keyword":{"attribute_name":"キーワード","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_subject":"人口人類学｜マイクロシミュレーション｜人口再生産過程モデル｜宗門改帳｜日本","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"demographic anthropology｜microsimulation｜model for reproductive process｜shumon aratame-cho｜Japan","subitem_subject_language":"en","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"}]},"item_language":{"attribute_name":"言語","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_language":"jpn"}]},"item_resource_type":{"attribute_name":"資源タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"resourcetype":"departmental bulletin paper","resourceuri":"http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501"}]},"item_title":"記録されなかった出生 : 人口人類学におけるシミュレーション研究","item_titles":{"attribute_name":"タイトル","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_title":"記録されなかった出生 : 人口人類学におけるシミュレーション研究"},{"subitem_title":"Uncounted Births : Estimating the Fertility of Tokugawa Peasants from Shumon Aratame cho","subitem_title_language":"en"}]},"item_type_id":"9","owner":"17","path":["419"],"pubdate":{"attribute_name":"公開日","attribute_value":"2010-02-16"},"publish_date":"2010-02-16","publish_status":"0","recid":"4167","relation_version_is_last":true,"title":["記録されなかった出生 : 人口人類学におけるシミュレーション研究"],"weko_creator_id":"17","weko_shared_id":-1},"updated":"2023-06-20T17:18:43.215242+00:00"}