@article{oai:minpaku.repo.nii.ac.jp:00004444,
 author = {小山, 修三 and Koyama, Shuzo and 杉藤, 重信 and Sugito, Shigenobu},
 issue = {1},
 journal = {国立民族学博物館研究報告, Bulletin of the National Museum of Ethnology},
 month = {Mar},
 note = {This paper applies techniques of computer simulation to the
analysis of Jomon demographic patterns. The computer programs
are based on the following assumptions: (1) Population grows exponentially,
with the equation Nt=No*evt; (2) there is an upper
limit to population size in a given area, termed carrying capacity
(K); and (3) at the level K, population growth stops. In this program,
we divided Japan into nine regions, such that when population
reaches the level K, the surplus migrates to other areas, according to
probablistic models.
In dealing with carrying capacity, we initially assign the constant
M, a hypothetical population maximum for an area; subsequently
M is converted to K as a consequence the impact of climate and
technology.
Pollen analysis indicates significant climatic change during the
Jomon Period. This was precipitated by a warming trend, which
began after the last glacial, and continued until about 6000 B.P.,
followed by a cooling trend which lasted until about 2000 B.P.
This climatic wave caused significant change in the vegetation of the
Japanese archipelago. In the East during the warming trend,
coniferous forests were replaced by deciduous Fagus-Quercus forests,
comprised of a variety of nut-bearing trees, which constituted an
important food source for the Jomon people. However, the nutbearing
trees are sensitive and often succumb in cold weather. Based
on these facts, we assume that carrying capacity increased during the
warming trend and decreased during the cooling trend in the regions
of East Japan. In West Japan, however, Yasuda [1980] suggests
that during the warming trend the environment deteriorated owing to
dry summers. So here we assume that carrying capacity declined
during the warming trend and then remained constant.
The technology of Jomon food production, including the tool
elements used for hunting, fishing and gathering, are well known from
an early stage in East Japan. Thus we assume that although tools must
have been refined and systematized as Eastern Jomon technology
developed, they were not powerful enough to influence carrying
capacity, because the system did not prevent population decline in the
cooling period. By contrast, farming, the true technological innovation,
introduced from the Asian continent to Kyushu, changed
Jomon society into an agricultural one. In this simulation we stipulate
that when rice is introduced into a region it not only doubles the
ratio of population growth but also increases carrying capacity
(five times).
The results were compared with earlier estimates [KOYAMA 1978]
based on the number of sites. Both data coincide well, especially
with respect to the population curve throughout the Jomon period.
In the East this curve shows a sharp increase of population until the
Middle Phase, where a rapid decline is observed (Late Phase). In
the West population remained almost constant throughout the entire
period. During the Jomon, the distribution of pupolation was high
in the East, whereas in the Yayoi it was high in the West—representing
a complete reversal between the two periods.},
 pages = {1--39},
 title = {縄文人口シミュレーション},
 volume = {9},
 year = {1984},
 yomi = {コヤマ, シュウゾウ and スギトウ, シゲノブ}
}